Hi! Manatsu here, power ranking and predicting who will win their matches this week. I’m using a simple ELO system to calculate the win/loss percentages for each team. As this is a new and fresh system, all teams were assigned a default value of 1000. Because of this, predictions should get more accurate as teams’ ELOs stabilize. I will be power ranking based on this elo system alone so teams will be rapidly shifting earlier in the season. You’ll notice this week’s rankings are highly correlated with the team’s performances this week. Since every team started with a default value, this makes sense. With that said, the following are Manatsu’s Power Rankings (MPR) for Week 2!
Power Rankings
Tier I
1st Flash the Disrespect (2-0), Predictive Gaming Chronos (2-0)
3rd Chubby Babies Black (2-0), Goon Squad Gaming Epsilon (2-0), VBU Radon (2-0)
Everyone in this tier showed excellence by winning both their opening games. There is a slight separation between Flash the Disrespect & Predictive Gaming Chronos and Chubby Babies Black, Goon Squad Gaming Epsilon, and VBU Radon. The only reason the two teams are slightly ahead is because their opponents in the second matches of the night won their first game, whereas the other three went against teams that lost their opening match. In terms of ELO, this rewards the former. With that said, everyone in this tier is essentially the same in terms of power rankings. These teams have made their statement in the league so far and will be the ones other teams will seek to beat.
Tier II
6th Glacial Rising Phoenix (1-1)
7th Swift Esports God Squad (1-1), Team Dark Spark (1-1), Omega Gaming Fire (1-1), Soulbound Tempest (1-1)
11th !rawr Lethal (1-1)
Teams in this tier ended the weekend with split decisions. Glacial Rising Phoenix eked out ahead due to their win against a team that won their previous match. Swift Esports God Squad, Team Dark Spark, Omega Gaming Fire, and Soulbound Tempest either beat or lost to a team with an equivalent ELO. !rawr Lethal is lagging behind only slightly because they lost to a team that lost their opening game. These teams may not be in the first tier, but the next couple of matches can quickly change that.
Tier III
12th Crosspoint Origin (0-2) Chubby Babies White (0-2) Hide on Team (0-2)
15th Anarchy Amber (0-2) Crosspoint Southpaw (0-2)
Teams in this tier unfortunately lost both their opening matches. That shouldn’t discourage any team in this tier as we’re still very early into the season. In terms of ELO, this is the best time to lose as their wins against any other team will quickly net them more. Crosspoint Origin, Chubby Babies White, and Hide on Team are slightly ahead because their second loss of the night were against teams that had won earlier, whereas Anarchy Amber and Crosspoint Southpaw suffered defeats to teams that were 0-1. Teams in this tier will be bringing out their A-game as they seek their first win in the season.
Predictions
The first games of the night will be easier to predict as all I have to do is look at each team’s respective ELO and calculate their predicted win percentage; however, the second games are a bit trickier. Predictions for the second round of games are dependent on the results of the first games as ELOs will change because of this. If a team won their first game of the night, then technically their ELO should be higher. In contrast, if they lose their first game, their ELO will be lower. Since the predictions will be made without this knowledge, it’s a little harder to predict using the ELO system. As such, I will be averaging the four different scenarios of ELO change (Team A & Team B both won their first game, Team A won & Team B lost, Team A lost & Team B won, Team A & Team B both lost their first game).
Game 1
Hide on Team (0-2) vs Swift Esports God Squad (1-1)
ELO Prediction: Swift Esports God Squad at 55.4%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Swift Esports God Squad
Predictive Gaming Chronos (2-0) vs Chubby Babies Black (2-0)
ELO Prediction: Predictive Gaming Chronos at 50.3%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Chubby Babies Black
Omega Gaming Fire (1-1) vs !rawr Lethal (1-1)
ELO Prediction: Omega Gaming Fire at 50.3%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Omega Gaming Fire
Chubby Babies White (0-2) vs Anarchy Amber (0-2)
ELO Prediction: Chubby Babies White at 50.3%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Anarchy Amber
Crosspoint Origin (0-2) vs Soulbound Tempest (1-1)
ELO Prediction: Soulbound Tempest at 55.4%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Soulbound Tempest
Glacial Rising Phoenix (1-1) vs Crosspoint Southpaw (0-2)
ELO Prediction: Glacial Rising Phoenix at 56.0%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Glacial Rising Phoenix
Team Dark Spark (1-1) vs VBU Radon (2-0)
ELO Prediction: VBU Radon at 55.4%
Manatsu’s Prediction: VBU Radon
Flash the Disrespect (2-0) vs Goon Squad Gaming Epsilon (2-0)
ELO Prediction: Flash the Disrespect at 50.3%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Flash the Disrespect
Game 2
Swift Esports God Squad (1-1) vs Chubby Babies White (0-2)
ELO Prediction: Swift Esports God Squad at 55.1%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Chubby Babies White
Chubby Babies Black (2-0) vs Hide on Team (0-2)
ELO Prediction: Chubby Babies Black at 60.4%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Chubby Babies Black
!rawr Lethal (1-1) vs Predictive Gaming Chronos (2-0)
ELO Prediction: Predictive Gaming Chronos at 56.0%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Predictive Gaming Chronos
Anarchy Amber (0-2) vs Omega Gaming Fire (1-1)
ELO Prediction: Omega Gaming Fire at 55.7%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Omega Gaming Fire
Soulbound Tempest (1-1) vs Flash the Disrespect (2-0)
ELO Prediction: Flash the Disrespect at 56.0%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Flash the Disrespect
Crosspoint Southpaw (0-2) vs Crosspoint Origin (0-2)
ELO Prediction: Crosspoint Origin at 50.3%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Crosspoint Origin
VBU Radon (2-0) vs Glacial Rising Phoenix (1-1)
ELO Prediction: VBU Radon at 55.1%
Manatsu’s Prediction: VBU Radon
Goon Squad Gaming Epsilon (2-0) vs Team Dark Spark (1-1)
ELO Prediction: Goon Squad Gaming Epsilon at 55.1%
Manatsu’s Prediction: Goon Squad Gaming Epsilon
ELO Week 2 Standings
Manatsu's Week 2 Standings
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